In this article
A Unit can forecast 500 meals, produce 490, serve 475 and bill 470 without any of those numbers necessarily being wrong. Each quantity answers a question, has a source and can depend on a different rule.
The problem appears when one measure overwrites another. If the billed number replaces the produced number, the team loses the data it needs to analyse execution. If the forecast becomes a billing commitment, billing may ignore what the contract says. With the measures kept separate, each difference can be explained in the period and service where it appeared.
What each quantity means
Direct answer
Forecast is what was planned. Produced is what the Unit made. Served is what was distributed. Billed is the quantity accepted for charging under the contract. One measure does not erase another.
Besides the four measures in the title, some operations also record a confirmed order, a quantity reported by the Client and a reconciled quantity. These fields show at which stage the quantity changed.
The name a company uses matters less than the definition. Two teams may call the same number actual and be talking about different facts. For that reason, the glossary should state the source, the moment of recording, the unit and the person responsible.
Swipe the table to see all the columns.
| Measure | Question | Common source |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast | How many meals were expected? | Planning, calendar or contract |
| Confirmed order | How much did the Client request for the service? | Daily order or demand adjustment |
| Produced | How much was prepared? | Production team record |
| Served | How much was distributed? | Service control or measurement |
| Reconciled | Which quantity was accepted, and why? | Check between the parties |
| Billed | Which quantity became a financial line? | Issued billing statement |
Why the numbers diverge
The forecast may be made days ahead and change because of absences, holidays, shift schedules or events. Production may use a declared operational margin. Service may come in below production because of clean leftovers or a change in demand. The billable quantity may follow a contract rule that differs from the recorded distribution.
A discrepancy alone does not prove waste, error or fraud. It is a signal to investigate. The cause may lie in planning, yield, recording, the unit of measure or the measurement clause. The explanation must stay linked to the period and the service.
- Change in demand after planning
- Production margin set by the operation
- Actual yield different from the recipe sheet
- Waste and leftovers during execution
- Failure or delay in recording the service
- Contractual measurement criterion
- Deduction (glosa) or adjustment approved by the parties
An example with six measures
The weekly forecast was 500 meals. The day before, the Client confirmed 480. The Unit set a target of 490 because of the operational policy it follows. The team recorded 487 produced and 475 served. In reconciliation, the parties accepted 475 as the billable quantity.
Each difference raises a question. The move from 500 to 480 shows a change in demand. The target of 490 needs an operational justification. The difference of 12 between produced and served can be analysed as leftovers, yield or recording. In this hypothetical contract, billed matches served, but another contract may use a minimum quantity, a band or a different approval criterion.
Forecast: 500
Confirmed order: 480
Production target: 490
Produced: 487
Served: 475
Billed: 475
Production variance = 487 - 490 = -3
Service variance = 475 - 487 = -12
Billing variance = 475 - 475 = 0How to build indicators without mixing denominators
An indicator must say which measure it uses in the numerator and in the denominator. Cost per meal produced answers a different question from cost per meal served. Revenue per meal billed should not be divided by the forecast just because that number was available first.
Percentages only make sense when the denominator exists and is greater than zero. A field that has not been filled in must not become zero. Zero means the team confirmed there was no quantity; null means there is not yet enough information.
Production variance = produced - production target
Service variance = served - produced
Billing variance = billed - reconciled quantity
Fulfilment rate = served / confirmed order × 100
(only when the confirmed order is greater than zero)How to organize reconciliation
Reconciling means comparing sources, applying the contract rule and recording the decision, without picking the higher or the lower number. The accepted quantity should keep its date, responsible person, source and reason. If there is an attachment, a certificate of acceptance or external evidence, the reference must be identifiable.
When the parties do not agree, the system should keep the discrepancy open. Turning a provisional number into billing without a decision hides the problem and makes correction harder. Closing must distinguish an open item from a value of zero.
- Check that all measures belong to the same Unit, date, service and unit of measure.
- Compare the sources and find the first discrepancy.
- Look up the contract rule that applies to the period.
- Record the accepted quantity, the source chosen and the justification.
- Keep items open when there is not enough evidence.
- Use only reconciled quantities when issuing the billing statement.
The contract defines the billable quantity
There is no single rule for all collective catering contracts. Some use the meals actually served; others work with the quantity requested, a guaranteed minimum, bands or acceptance criteria. The unit of measure and the required documents must be read from the applicable contract.
Law No. 14.133/2021 (Brazil's law on public procurement and administrative contracts) is relevant to administrative contracts and reinforces the need for the contract itself to define the conditions for execution, receipt and payment. It does not turn the criterion of one specific tender into a rule for every private operation.
How MEPO handles this topic
In MEPO, the forecast, the quantity recorded by operations, the quantity reported by the Client and the billable quantity are independent fields. Reconciliation requires a source and a reason. The system shows the discrepancy but does not decide which number is correct. Billing statements use only the reconciled quantity.
References
The sources support the general concepts. Specific rules can vary by contract, technical lead and local regulations.
- [1]Lei nº 14.133/2021 (Brazil's law on public procurement and administrative contracts). Presidência da República.
- [2]Exemplo oficial de medição pelo consumo efetivo (official example of measurement by actual consumption). Prefeitura de Assis.
- [3]Planejamento de cardápios para a alimentação escolar (menu planning for school meals in Brazil). FNDE.
- [4]Resolução CFN nº 600/2018. Conselho Federal de Nutrição.